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The 70-something year-old Sistani appears to be losing the allegiance of many young Shi'ites to Moqtader Al-Sadr, the young heir-apparent to Sistani and leader of the most violent Shi'ite militia. The cycle of violence and retribution appears to be escalating between Sunnis and Shi'ites as the police and government agencies appear mired in corruption and apathy.
The problem seems to be that Sistani is a theologian and al-Sadr a politician:
"Muqtada al-Sadr asks them what the situation is on the street, are there any fights against the Shia, he is asking all the time. So the people become close to al-Sadr because he is closer to them than Sistani. Sistani is the ayatollah, he is very expert in Islam, but not as a politician."
Even the Iraqi army seems to have accepted that things have changed. First Lieut Jaffar al-Mayahi, an Iraqi National Guard officer, said many soldiers accepted that al-Sadr's Mehdi army was protecting Shias. "When they go to checkpoints and their vehicles are searched, they say they are Mehdi army and they are allowed through. But if we stop Sistani's people we sometimes arrest them and take away their weapons."
Western diplomats fear that the vacuum will be filled by the more radical Shia clerics, hastening the break-up of the country and an increase in sectarian violence.
Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Britain's former special representative for Iraq, said the decline in Ayatollah al-Sistani's influence was bad news for Iraq.
"It would be a pity if his strong instincts to maintain the unity of Iraq and to forswear violence were removed from influencing the scene," he said.
More than a pity, Sistani's withdrawal into occultation would be a disaster for the forces of moderation in a country sliding slowly toward civil war.
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