Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Iran Waits for August 22nd For a Reason

Bernard Lewis points out the significance of the August 22nd date for the Iranian
President Ahmedinejad, who claims to commune regularly with the Hidden Imam whose return will signal the beginning of the End of Days, Yoom Ad-Din in Quranic parlance.

If you ever get to Jerusalem, visit the Al-Aksa Mosque where a rock with Mohammed's footprint embedded gives the location of al-Isra, his ascent to heaven. [Note that Isra-el in sister-language Hebrew which puts the article behind the noun, has roughly the same meaning.]

Lewis is a polymath in many languages, legal codes, and cultural motifs that bypass polemicists like the MSM's earnest editorialists, and even bogus Islamist scholars like Juan Cole. Lewis correctly points out:
It seems increasingly likely that the Iranians either have or very soon will have nuclear weapons at their disposal, thanks to their own researches (which began some 15 years ago), to some of their obliging neighbors, and to the ever-helpful rulers of North Korea. The language used by Iranian President Ahmadinejad would seem to indicate the reality and indeed the imminence of this threat....

There is a radical difference between the Islamic Republic of Iran and other governments with nuclear weapons. This difference is expressed in what can only be described as the apocalyptic worldview of Iran's present rulers. This worldview and expectation, vividly expressed in speeches, articles and even schoolbooks, clearly shape the perception and therefore the policies of Ahmadinejad and his disciples....

A direct attack on the U.S., though possible, is less likely in the immediate future. Israel is a nearer and easier target, and Mr. Ahmadinejad has given indication of thinking along these lines. The Western observer would immediately think of two possible deterrents. The first is that an attack that wipes out Israel would almost certainly wipe out the Palestinians too. The second is that such an attack would evoke a devastating reprisal from Israel against Iran, since one may surely assume that the Israelis have made the necessary arrangements for a counterstrike even after a nuclear holocaust in Israel.

The first of these possible deterrents might well be of concern to the Palestinians--but not apparently to their fanatical champions in the Iranian government. The second deterrent--the threat of direct retaliation on Iran--is, as noted, already weakened by the suicide or martyrdom complex that plagues parts of the Islamic world today, without parallel in other religions, or for that matter in the Islamic past. This complex has become even more important at the present day, because of this new apocalyptic vision.

Of course, the Europeans would avoid such attacks by simpering and sniveling as is their diplomatic wont. Having been responsible for two World Wars, they don't want the third to come as a result of their active incompetence. They'll be passively feckless this time around. Lewis makes points no Euro-coward would ever raise:
What is the significance of Aug. 22? This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini, quoted in an 11th-grade Iranian schoolbook, is revealing. "I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [i.e., the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another's hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours."

In this context, mutual assured destruction, the deterrent that worked so well during the Cold War, would have no meaning. At the end of time, there will be general destruction anyway. What will matter will be the final destination of the dead--hell for the infidels, and heaven for the believers. For people with this mindset, MAD is not a constraint; it is an inducement.

How then can one confront such an enemy, with such a view of life and death? Some immediate precautions are obviously possible and necessary. In the long term, it would seem that the best, perhaps the only hope is to appeal to those Muslims, Iranians, Arabs and others who do not share these apocalyptic perceptions and aspirations, and feel as much threatened, indeed even more threatened, than we are. There must be many such, probably even a majority in the lands of Islam. Now is the time for them to save their countries, their societies and their religion from the madness of MAD.

The Democrats may persist in being the party of denial, as Bill Clinton's mindset revealed over eight years of lassitude after the wake-up call of the WTC attack in 1993. [Though some centrist Democrats are beginning to realize the world is not the kumbayeh chant do-gooders imagine.] But the left-wing of the Democrats can't abandon their Pollyannish views on foreign policy without jettisoning their multi-cultural, ambi-sexual, gender-morphing baggage as well. The Camp Casey kooks would lose their reason for sweltering saunas and lawyers for lots of hate-crime and other tort-suits based on social-engineering experiments.

John McCain's youngest son just joined the Marines and John himself would be much better at the White House than some Democrat lawyer who believes negotiation is the summa theologica of foreign policy. Statecraft has its place, but poker might be the better analogy when it comes to dealing with a chiliastic creed like Islam.

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