Republicans in Disarray, but is there Hope?

The Elephant in the Living Room in the 2006 Fall elections most likely will be the Immigration issue, a thorny problem for the two wings of the Republican Party, the urban shareholder libertarians who favor more low-wage labor and the isolationist religious conservatives who favor a Fence and oppose amnesty for law-breaking trespassers already in the country.

There is an issue which can unite Republicans. The protection of our nation from international terrorists---mostly of the Islamic variety---by surveillance of phone and internet communications is, to my knowledge, supported by nearly all Republicans. It is also supported by moderate Democrats whose concern for civil liberties is balanced by sensible measures taken to protect the country from Al-Qaeda franchisees plotting to penetrate American security.

Therefore, it behooves the Democratic leadership to exercise self-restraint, often a rare commodity on the left, when it undertakes what the New York Times calls "an opening:"

Democrats say that sharply declining support for the war in Iraq and Republican political miscalculations like the administration's initial support for turning over some United States port operations to a Dubai company have cut into the historical Republican strength on security issues. At the same time, Mr. Bush's own standing on the handling of the campaign against terrorism has dropped significantly.

The balance between civil liberties and national security makes for combustible politics, as Sen Reid from Nevada acknowledges:

[One Senator] expected Republicans to try to turn the confirmation hearings into a referendum on who is against terrorism.

Mr. Reid, the Democratic leader, agreed that Republicans might try to use the hearings and the focus on the surveillance programs to regain momentum on security issues. He said that Democrats would approach the nomination with an open mind but that they would not sell Republicans short when it came to political tactics.

"They have taken us to the cleaners twice," he said, referring to the last two election cycles. "I am certainly not going to underestimate their abilities. We have to keep our eyes on the prize."

With mikeaholics like Arlen Specter and Chuck Schumer in the mix, there are plenty of opportunities for showboating by the Senate on this issue.

If the Republicans can find a way to tie illegal immigration with the national security issue, there might be a way for them to win back their majority status in the Fall electiosn.