Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Rush Limbaugh Gets NH Polling Errors Right---Per Usual

Rush takes this link to task for hemming and hawing when the real truth stares everyone in the face---people lie to pollsters. Especially other-directed emo-Democrat people.

As a preamble, we should consider the well-known fact that Political Correctness and Orwellian Groupthink do infect Democrats to a greater degree than Independents and Republicans. I worked as a Democrat in three national elections over twenty years and looking back from my independent stance at the moment, I'd be willing to contend that polling Democrats is always going to produce an answer that fits the PC party line.

Rush Limbaugh brings up the Wilder Effect, AKA the Bradley Effect and the Dinkins Effect, all cases in which black Democrats polled far higher than the eventual ballot boxes emitted. Fact is:

The Iowa Caucuses ["Hawkeye Cauci}" are public open spaces where one has to publicly move to one part of a large room to be counted among the advocates of Obama, Clinton, Edwards, et al. If you switch your vote, it is done in a highly public manner in front of your friends and neighbors.

In NH, you pull the lever or punch the ballot card in the privacy of your booth. You can tell pollsters whatever, but God & yourself only know what you did in the booth.

When I mentioned this to a psychologist friend, he told me an interesting story. He got a Masters in Statistics at Ohio State with a minor in psychology. Then he came to Florida to do his Doctoral thesis and used "anonymous" opinion polling in his school to do part of his thesis, as a control group. But a double-bind method of statistics enabled him to ascertain that even though the polling was "anonymous," those polled told the polling system what they thought the ultimate poller, my friend the good Doctor, wanted to hear. Independently, they were more candid with the pollster, the Doctor found out, and gave their "real" or "true" opinion---sometimes different from the "anonymous" opinion given in the poll.

If a cross-section of students polled gave answers on the basis of their perceived bias of the pollster, what will Democrats do who want to appear desperate to give themselves to a higher cause and a bigger government?

1 comment :

AmPowerBlog said...

I wrote about the controversy today.

Hope you're well.