Saudis Transition to Transparency Ahead?

As Political Officer in Saudi Arabia for three-plus years, I was the specialist on the Saudi Royal Family and internal politics throughout the Kingdom. I was in Dhahran for a month studying the Shi'ites in Al-Qatif and the Al-Hasa Oasis, right where the giant oilfields were discovered by American prospectors. At that time, I was able to calculate the number of Shi'ites in the country at 600,000. But the opaque mechanisms of the Saudis, as young Prince Bandar explained to me, were such that perhaps no one really knew the true number of Shi'ites living there in redoubts like Hofuf and Al-Hasa---no taxes were paid, so census results never were necessary.
Thirty years later, taxes are still not collected and the putative number of Shi'ites has probably quadrupled, like the rest of the country's Sunnis. But the secretive Saudis are still struggling to employ all its citizens, even in meaningless jobs, since most Saudi males are unwilling to attend advanced college education due to the tribal culture. [Excuse me if FT link is a pay portal---I entered on Drudge & then Isac blew off the electricity. I was meaning to insert quotes from paras in article, but now am blocked. Capitalism.] The Saudis are nervous about the post-Arab Spring displacements and especially in Syria. King Abdullah's mother is a Shammar tribeswoman from the Syrian desert, where they practice transhumance every summer south deep into the Kingdom, so he has always been partial to Syria and northern Iraq and Lebanon and even has a Lebanese wife.
As I will touch on, Abdullah is deeply disturbed by Bashar Assad's regime in its terrible state and wants to see it gone, yet fears what will ensue.

The Saudi NSC, consisting of a few senior princes and Saud al Faisal and Bandar bin Fahd, are still steering the Kingdom through very muddy waters. On one side, the Egyptian Ikhwan now in charge are hardly stabilized yet, and on the other, Iran is busy constructing a nuclear device, which would give the Ayatollah's absolute hegemony in the Persian Gulf area and westward. Allied with wobbly Pakistan, the Islamic Republic could threaten India and Afghanistan, especially with Russia's help. And the Saudis are worried that Syria may produce a Sunni version of Iran or an iteration of Al Qaeda, or worse---Assad might prevail and Syria become a vassal of Iran aided by Shi'ite-ruled Iraq.

And the high unemployment rate and restive youth threaten the tribal ruling system of the Royals, who will be more supplicants now to the US than ever. The $600 billion the Saudis have overseas is a gigantic nest egg, but if the price of oil should plummet, they will need to draw down on their monetary hoard to satisfy domestic needs.

If Obama is reelected, God forbid, we may see a more muscular approach to the Middle East, or throwing Israel to the dogs. Owebama won't have to worry about high gas prices hindering his re-election and he could go all in. Romney is a complete unknown on foreign policy, so America will be buying a blank check---except Mitt won't neglect Israel or go hating on Netanyahu as The First Fail does now. The Saudis are in a quandary because either way, they win if the Middle East goes into a tailspin on the oil price front, but their entire condominium of tribal networks may be threatened by AQ types.

After Abdullah dies, Crown Prince Salman will be remain a calming presence as King [which the recently-deceased Crown Prince Naif would not have been]. But will he be strong enough to hold off the modernizing trend toward transparency or compromise and allow non-Royals into the inner circle?

Just another variable in the never-ending turmoil that is the Middle East.