Friday, August 03, 2012

REAL unemployment rate at 15%

Municipal bonds or "Munis" as they're called in the trade are threatened by the financial burden across the national scene by a 15% REAL unemployment rate. I used to hawk munis over the phone with cold-calling tip sheets, a thankless task only mitigated by my acquisition of NASD 7 & 63 licenses.
The government's most widely publicized unemployment rate measures only those who are out of a job and currently looking for work. It does not count discouraged potential employees who have quit looking, nor those who are underemployed — wanting to work full-time but forced to work part-time. For that count, the government releases a separate number called the "U-6," which provides a more complete tally of how many people really are out of work.

Some of the numbers state-by-state are startling.
Consider: Nevada's U-6 rate is 22.1 percent, up from just 7.6 percent in 2007. Economically troubled California has a 20.3 percent real rate, while Rhode Island is at 18.3 percent, more than double its 8.3 percent rate in 2007. Those numbers compare especially unfavorably to the national rate, high in itself at 14.9 percent though off its record peak of 17.2 percent in October 2009.

So much for the First Oaf and his imbecilic porkulus of $800+ billion which went largely to his cronies and other corrupt Demonrat allies in the political sphere. As for "shovel-ready projects, the First Fool miscalculated as usual. They just weren't "eligible" for the porkulus monies. So these went to Solyndra and other will-o'-the-wisp Demonrat corrupt illusions.
Only three states — Nebraska (9.1 percent), South Dakota (8.6 percent) and North Dakota (6.1 percent) — have U-6 rates under 10 percent, according to research from RBC Capital Markets.

But the three states above are profiting from dreaded shale gas and oil---fossil fuels which botox-addled freaks like Pelosi maintain are poisoning the planet. My home state of Florida is also hit very hard:
Election battleground states paint a picture not much more flattering. Florida's U-6 number is an ugly 17 percent, though Pennsylvania and Ohio are both around 14 percent, below the national U-6 average.

As I noted above, munis will be hit hard, says Chris Mauro, head of US Munipipals Strategy at RBC.
"While down from recent peaks, state U-6 levels remain dramatically higher than they were in 2007 and 2008." Mauro used the numbers to demonstrate that investing in municipal bonds remains a challenge because high real unemployment rates will be a drain on local finances. "We remain concerned about the corrosive influence that these stubbornly high U-6 rates may have on both consumer sentiment and state and local tax revenues," he said. "At current levels, these U-6 rates will continue to be a drag on credit quality."

San Bernardino and Stockton have already defaulted, and the entire state of California may be unable to undo its foolish politicians' nitwit cowardice in granting ginormous pensions and other benefits to state employees. I will laugh derisively when that happens.

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