Nate Silver ponders the Demonrat predicament and scratches his head while asking himself why, and how, the Dems began their slide toward a minority role in the House and possibly even the Senate.
Of course, Nate would never do an Occam's razor exercise like Cueball and note that Obambi simply appears disinterested to the mass of Americans, who have awakened to the realization that they mistakenly gave the inmates the key to the asylum in 2008 [actually starting in 2006 with the Foley blogstorm and other dirty demonrat tricks]. They are now looking for some adult supervision. Here's 538's take:
The reasons for the Democrats’ decline are, as we say in the business, overdetermined". That is, there are no lack of hypotheses to explain it: lots of causes for this one effect. The economy? Sure. Unpopular legislation like health care? Yep. Some “bad luck” events like the Gulf Oil spill? Mmm-hmm. The new energy breathed into conservatives by the Tea Party movement? Uh-huh.
And this hardly exhausts the theories. An inexperienced White House that has sometimes been surprisingly inept at coping with the 24/7 news media cycle? The poor optics associated with Democrats having had a filibuster-proof majority in theory, but not always in practice? All of the above.
These causes can’t be so easily untangled on the basis of polling evidence; there’s really no basis on which to evaluate the competing hypotheses. This is particularly so given that different types of political events aren’t isolated from one another — health care reform might have been unpopular, for instance, but the reason for its unpopularity may ultimately have been the economy.
Silver's underplaying of health care is pilloried as typical demonrat trickery and MSM spermburper chicanery by Jay Cost in realClear article:
...there has been a real danger of losing the House for some time, a danger that predates "Recovery Summer" and goes back to the health care debate.
First of all, the fact that the health care bill is no longer the topic du jour does not mean it is no longer an issue. The real questions are whether the health care bill moved voters away from the Democrats, and whether those voters have since moved back now that the debate is over. The answers are yes - the debate moved voters away from the Democrats; and no - the voters have not come back.....
Cost goes on to explain why health care, opposed by sixty pct. of Americans with an opinion, will continue to be the iron bar in the demonrat house of cards, despite the fact that chief spermburpers and stenographers for the DNC principal crime lords still call it a "plurality" of US citizens opposing health care.
You know, the plan that Nancy Botox assured us we'd like after bypassing committees and the US Senate unconstitutionally or at least parliamentarily avoided a filibuster by Senate Majority Crimelord Harry ["we've lost the war"] Weakreid. The 2000 page monstrosity almost as deformed as Maxine Waters dope-wasted mind or Barbara Boxer's sex life. The one which members had 24 hours to read and zero hours to go over in committee. Cost give the monster the coup de grace:
Democrats ignored the political problem of health care in the fall and winter - arguing that Martha Coakley and Creigh Deeds were bad candidates, that voters had been turned off by the health care bill because of the process, and that they would come around once the many benefits kicked in. Now, they're pointing to the economy as the only significant reason why the party is in trouble.
It would be difficult for any strong partisan to admit that such an accomplishment was so deeply unpopular. Yet the polling is pretty unequivocal on the relationship between the Democrats' fortunes and the health care bill. It was during the health care debate that the essential building block of the Democratic majority - Independent voters - began to crumble. It was evident in the generic ballot. It was evident in the President's job approval numbers. It was evident in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.
Reconstructing the Democrats' meme, we can fairly say that the economy is a huge problem for the party. Of this, there can be no doubt. We can also say that the stalled recovery denied the Democrats a chance to win back the voters they lost over health care. But the process and passage of health care reform were crucial elements in the story. That's when the party started losing the voters it needs to retain control of the government.
In the immortal words of Voltaire: "Ecrasez l'infame!"
In English, loosely translated, that means "Drop kick that sucker over the transom and into the dumpster where it belongs!"
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