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Russia is employing its normal brutal methods in breaking contracts signed in the early '90s when the opening up of Russia gave oil internationals like Shell and BP access to great deals.
One of the reasons BP bought Amoco Corp where I used to work was to get the large Russian gas fields and other good plays that Amoco had sagely negotiated.
Russia in its implacable clumsy ham-handed fashion is buying and bribing and strong-arming its way into putting the EU into an energy vise.
No media outlet has noted that Russian pressure on Georgia aims someday to influence or control the Baku/Ceyhan pipeline transiting Georgia and ensuring its energy independence from Russia, along with income from pipeline fees.
But the larger goal would be to pinch off the hose from the Azerbaijan oil spigot and put that country under the Russian sphere of influence.
The Russians are cozying up to Iran for the same reason, and along with China are going to support Iran's nuclear weapon development in the UN for "raisons d'etat" that have more to do with energy than any other goal. Russia has even got Iranian support for its brutal Chechen campaign, although the Muslims in Chechnya are ethnically and linguistically Iranian. Armenia is also an ally with both Iran and Moscow in the Russian near-abroad phalanx moving to take over control of the Caucasus.
Now if the Iranians can somehow control or even preponderantly influence Iraqi energy after the US defeatists manage to cut and depart from that sad country, the Saudis and Gulfies will cower. Believe me, they are afraid of Iran all by itself, and under the combined weight of natural gas powerhouses like Russia, Iran, and tiny Qatar, will bend in the new wind blowing from the north and east. Among the three of them, they have more than 50% of the world's proven gas reserves.
Jonathan Stern of London's OxfordEnergy may disagree, but as Ukraine found out early this year, the Russians play hardball without gloves, in the middle of winter!
Vladimir Putin's may be uttering platitudes that the March 2006 EU Green Energy Policy gurus to the extent that these ostriches don't foresee a problem, but the IEA World Energy Outlook note there is more than one cloud out there on the horizon.
And an OPEC for Natural Gas, with Venezuela hosting this year's Forum [the Venz don't even have a gas export program yet], is in an inchoate nascent stage. This ONGEC might be to the 21st century 20 years down the road, what the Oil Exporter's OPEC was in the twentieth.
Dick Cheney for one is concerned, and a lot of EU countries are starting to stir from their slumber, although German Judas-Goat Gerhard Schroeder at Gazprom's pipeline keeps lulling them back to sleep.
Like a chess player, Putin in his mid-fifties may be planning strategically with a lot of moves already in his head. We'll know for sure what's up if he decides to overthrow the Constitution and run for a third term next year. [Oops, I meant revise the Constitution!]
But to end on a high note, there is one joker in the pack. And that is the continuing development of oil and gas extraction technology far beyond what is anticipated. That has been the case since I first got acquainted with the oil industry and may continue, in the which-case, the entire scenario will be rosier.
Unless Al Gore is elected Prez in '08 and Global Warming hysteria causes the collective collapse of energy exploration and development.
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