Thursday, December 06, 2007

Ahmedinejad Claims Victory

Hardliners in the Bush Administration such as the Cheney camp have been defeated, or bruised, by the NIE report. However, as I noted yesterday, the report does say that Iran DID have a nuclear weapons program, is still producing enriched uranium, and may restart its weaponizing at any time. It seems that a logical reason that the Iranians ceased their weaponizing program for nukes in 2003 was due to the fall of their mortal enemy Saddam Hussein. At the time, the cost of oil was low enough so that the "cost-benefit" argument might have held sway, given the new removal of SH from their enemies' list. Also, the fall of their opponents in Afganistan may have given them less of a sense of urgency.

However, the Democrats, who derided US intelligence so roundly as far as Iraq WMD was concerned, can hardly turn around 180 degrees and say this "proves" anything in a fundamental fashion about the supposed dishonesty of the Bush administration---though they will.

For example, Sen. Joe Biden has already lied about what Bush knew and when he knew it ["months ago"] about the NIE report, which only came to a final determination just two weeks ago. Of course, Biden knows this as part of his SenForRel Cte chairmanship, but as with his plagiarism of Neil Kinnock a few years ago, with Biden dishonesty is his frequent policy, closely allied to his practice of shooting off his big mouth.

But of course, this will give the Euro-weasel crowd & the evil twins of Russia & China more inspiration to sit on their asses vis-a-vis Iran. And the clown-in-chief of the IAEA el-Baradei, whose Nobel Peace Prize is only slightly less ridiculous than that of the most recent winner, is again bleating for entry into the Iranian wolf's lair. Iran's feet must be kept to the fire, but there is now an argument that a good cop role by the USA in initiating discussions with the Iranians might be clever.

This is because the demented troll Ahmadodojihad is facing serious opposition to the parliamentary elections in March of '08 and while calling his opposition "traitors," he has also simply has lost the confidence of the Iranian street. Runaway inflation and empty shelves have had their effect and it's a good bet that Rafsanjani's opposition forces may win big in March and then take the presidency [again] in '09. Ahmadodo..d has only his truculent foreign policy to support him & most Iranians are sick of his antics and posturing, much as the Venz just showed their disgust for Chavez by voting down his Putsch against the Constitution.

A well-reasoned argument for negotiations or at least talks comes in a new article by Vali Nasr & Amin Taheri in Foreign Affairs which says that the US could grease the skids for the former hostage-kidnapper Amhedodo...d. At the Tehran Embassy [my FSO colleague Ms. Kolb & several other hostages have identified him as a concentration camp guard in the Embassy back in '79-80] he was a nasty little persecutor of the female embassy staff, whom he treated with special derision for displaying their forearms in the blazing heat. His greatest usefulness & that of his delusionary comrades was to get Jimmy Carter booted from the White House and prepare the Soviet Union for its ignoble end. So thank you, dodojihad. Jimmy Peanut would have continued to play footsie with the Sovs, and Ronald Reagan came in on his white horse and rescued America from incompetent amateurs.

Back to Iran, Nasr & Taheri posit that talking to non-Pasdaran Iranian leaders who do not consist of the thug-mafia currently killing US soldiers in Iraq might make the '08 election in March about domestic policy, which will demolish the dodo & his colleagues. Having read David Ignatius and Robert Kagan on the issue, I reluctantly agree, although the ultras now in control of Iranian FOREIGN policy, as opposed to their nuclear development policy, will attempt to use their poker playing skills to outduel GWB, who along with Condi, can barely play checkers, though they think they are playing chess with Iran.

Iran is outfoxing them by playing poker, while they think they're in a game of chess.

Perhaps they may still have the energy, and overcome Dick Cheney's veto to finally allow Condi Rice to escape from the mediocrity surrounding her. Unless, of course...........

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