LURCHING TOWARD BETHLEHEM?

Before the insane assassination of Yitzhak Rabin in 1995, there was actually a very short period when the world believed that all sides would pull together over a long and testy series of negotiations to achieve a two-state solution to the intractable conflict.

An Israeli right-wing Settler-supporter put an end to these hopes with a fusillade of bullets into Rabin’s back.

Rabin joined Sadat as martyrs for peace.

After another lurch peaceward at the end of the Millenium, the situation again fell apart, and the intifada began again.

Now, for the third time in a dozen years, two elections promise to prepare conditions to make another stab at some sort of ultimate solution. There is an interesting article in today’s Wall Street Journal entitled: A vote for Hamas isn't necessarily a vote for genocide. The author is Khaled Abu Toameh, Palestinian affairs writer for the Jerusalem Post. After the death of Arafat, his old-guard cronies still infest the top reaches of Fatah, but

most candidates who are running in the January 25th elections have focused on ethical, not political, issues. They have promised voters that they will fight financial corruption and lawlessness, and create a transparent government. Most importantly, the candidates promise to use international aid for the welfare of the people, and not plonk it in secret bank accounts.
Hamas has already laid down a good track record of corruption-free, efficient governanace

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Proof of growing support for Hamas was provided in the past year by the results of municipal elections held in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Over a million Palestinians now live in jurisdictions run by Hamas mayors and municipal councils.

The election campaign has avoided the elephant in the living room:

Hamas's decision to focus on financial corruption, nepotism and anarchy is regarded by many Palestinians as wise. Had the Islamic movement put the destruction of Israel and the continuation of suicide bombings at the top of its platform, it would not have attracted such support: The majority of Palestinians are either exhausted by the intifada or simply don't believe that the elimination of Israel is realistic. And many who cast their ballots for Hamas in the municipal elections were quick to explain that this should be seen as a vote of protest against the Palestinian Authority rather than affiliation with fundamentalists and suicide attacks. Even some Christians in Bethlehem and Ramallah are not afraid to admit that they voted for Hamas.

Mahmoud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen, has been unable to clean house. But the problem of Fatah’s own internal gang wars deprives him of even a fig leaf of authority :

The majority of the Palestinians (more than 65%) were prepared to give Abu Mazen a chance to bring about real change; that's why they voted for him in the last presidential election. He ran on a platform that called for ending corruption, and told the voters that he wanted to dismantle the armed gangs, including his own supporters in the Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, and create a democratic order. But ever since he took over, the situation has deteriorated to a point where even his top aides admit that they are no longer in control. The ruling Fatah is witnessing a bitter power struggle between two generations--the local grass-roots "Young Guard" and the "Old Guard," which consists of Arafat cronies. Many Palestinians don't see this conflict as a power struggle between reformists and corrupt old-timers, but as a plain fight between bad guys.

These gang lords are now running things in a lot of places.

Many communities are controlled by armed thugs. These gangs, which consist mostly of Fatah militiamen and dissident security officers, have discovered that in order to get a job or money, all you need do is kidnap a foreigner or occupy a ministry building. When a group of Fatah militiamen recently seized Bethlehem City Hall and kicked out all the workers, Abu Mazen personally phoned the group's leader and promised to recruit him and his cohorts as officers in the Palestinian security forces.

Hamas is going to be a major player, barring a miracle:

Sources close to Abu Mazen say he'd have preferred to see the elections postponed to avoid a humiliating defeat. Yet he is under massive pressure from the U.S. to proceed, and does not want to be seen as having delayed the election out of fear that Hamas might win. U.S., Israeli and European threats to punish the Palestinians if Hamas takes over the authority have only boosted Hamas's appeal. Palestinians wonder why decision-makers elsewhere want them to vote for the same old regime that robs people of a decent, secure life. Why, they ask, must they vote for the very men they long to punish?

Unconsciously or not, the writer ends on a revealing note, employing the word "punish" rather than "vote out" or "evict" or "fire."

Having lived in the region for half a decade, I have always felt that there does exist an undercurrent of vengeance and violence that manifests itself in such varied ways as so-called "honor-killings" and suicide bombers. There seems to be an anarchist streak, or a tradition "a rebours" at loose in the region which single-mindedly pursues goals contrary to all acceptable canons of human behavior.

I felt it once when a military officer held a pistol to my head when I parked outside the American Embassy in Beirut reserved for diplomatic parking, a privilege I had at the time. The military had commandeered the spaces for security purposes, but characteristically had only put a rock in my space with no other indication of parking restrictions. I spent an hour being interrogated, even with diplomatic ID. The Embassy finally rescued me.

The scorpion and the frog, or as in Japan, the chysanthemum and the sword, can co-exist in the same person, as Dr. Jekyll displays in a literary context. But although that officer in Beirut might have been a fine typically Lebanese fellow, and might have "bought me right many a nipperkin, had we met some other place" what if he had fired the gun?

So I can understand why the Israelis don't want Iran or any near neighbor to possess nuclear weapons. Any country which is waiting for a hidden imam whose occultation occurred over a thousand years ago to return and deliver the Iranian nation, is not a nation whose feet are firmly planted in the new millenium.

And, I might add, not ready for prime-time nuclear status.

There is another point I am getting to:

One must remember that after the Israelis kicked the PLO leadership out of Lebanon to Tunis twenty-some years ago, the Israelis briefly cultivated the relatively apolitical Hamas as a possible successor to the PLO. Before long, Hamas’ growing radical religiosity had replaced the PLO’s socialist regimen with an equivalent level of threat and the Israelis attempt to choose their enemy fell apart.

There is little chance that Hamas can again change its stripes, but an elected Hamas faction in the PA parliament may challenge Mahmoud Abbas’s Presidency in a disciplined fashion and evolve into a political party.

Every party starts out as a movement, and perhaps tomorrow is Hamas’ time to party.

Hopefully, there will be no nasty hangover.

But get the Red Bull and raw eggs ready!